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The PUFF model was activated to simulate the position of airborne ash from
the Karymsky Eruption. The simulated image shows the position of the ash
at 0200 UTC, J 002; 20 hours after the start of the eruption (approx.
0600 UTC, J001). The simulated ash is shown at discrete altitudes of 1 to
3; 3 to 5; 5 to 7 kilometers and indicates that wind directions varied
widely with altitude on this day. Other simulations showed that winds at
even higher altitudes blew more to the north. Satellite images showed the
plume blew to the SE 160 km over the Pacific Ocean but then turned south
(See satellite image). The simulation suggests that the ash cloud was
between 3 and 5 km altitude since those are the winds that blew to the SE.
Pilot reports and cloud heights determined from shadow calculations from
the satellite images indicate that the plume was at an altitude < 7 km. The
south-blowing portion of the cloud observed on the image may be ash at a
lower altitude (i.e. 1 to 5 km). Notes: PUFF is a wind-field based plume dispersal model
under development at the UAF/GI. Due to UNIDATA data problems, the
wind fields were generated from predicted data rather than observed.
PUFF model parameters:
Eruption: J 001 0600 UTC;
Simulation: J 002 0200 UTC:
No. of particles = 10,000;
Eruption duration: 20 hours;
Atmospheric data range: 0-7,000 m;
Column shape: linear